Hey everyone. Like most here I am a new NHL fan and I've been following the Stanley Cup Qualifiers very closely. I even subscribed to NHLtv and have watched parts of every game, and plenty of full games as well. It's been exciting, but something is bothering me.
As a Kraken fan I care about how good the competition is within our division (Pacific for those that are new) and, to a lesser extent, our conference (Western). Just a quick recap of the basics for those that haven't looked into it too much.
Pacific Division There are two divisions in the Western Conference. The Central and the Pacific (where the Kraken will play). Within the Pacific we will play each team 4 or 5 times, and where we place among them is what determines if we will go to the Stanley Cup playoffs in a
normal season.
The teams in our division are:
- Vegas Golden Knights (Currently competing to be the #1 seed in the Western Conference for 2019-2020 Stanley Cup tournament). The game that will determine this is on right now as of this writing.
- Edmonton Oilers (we will get back to them, but they were a #5 seed and were knocked out by the #12 Chicago Blackhawks)
- Calgary Flames (#8 seed who beat Winnepeg in 4 games and will proceed to the tournament)
- Vancouver Canucks (F*** these stupid whales who were #7 and beat Minnesota in 4 to proceed to the tournament)
- Arizona Coyotes (Who are moving out of our division to the Central to make room for the Kraken but beat Nashville in 4 to proceed to the tournament as an #11 seed).
- Anaheim Ducks (who are rebuilding and were not invited to the qualifiers)
- L.A. Kings (also rebuilding, also were not invited)
- San Jose Sharks (who some think underperformed and will be better next season)
The Kraken, as noted above, will replace Arizona in this division starting in 2021.
The Normal Draft Lottery In the NHL there is a draft lottery. In a normal season 16 teams will make it to the playoffs and the 15 that do not (16 once we enter the league) will be in the lottery. The lottery is only to determine the first 3 picks of the draft. It works like this normally:
The worst team in the league based on record (Detroit this year) has the highest odds of drawing the #1 pick. Because if there wasn't a lottery they would normally get the #1 pick. The odds are exceptionally-low, but they could be moved BACK as far as #4 with the lottery. Because any of the bottom 15 teams can draw into spots 1-3. Here are the normal odds of getting the #1 overall pick for each of the bottom 15 teams from 2019. This is based on their pre-lottery position.
- 18.5 percent
- 13.5 percent
- 11.5 percent
- 9.5 percent
- 8.5 percent
- 7.5 percent
- 6.5 percent
- 6.0 percent
- 5.0 percent
- 3.5 percent
- 3.0 percent
- 2.5 percent
- 2.0 percent
- 1.5 percent
- 1.0 percent
The 2020 COVID-edition Lottery This year the 2019-2020 season got cut short because of the pandemic. But the NHL season "restarted" this past week with the new "Stanley Cup Qualifiers." It's essentially a playoff to get into the playoffs. All but the bottom 3 teams (all from California) were invited from our conference. Each team was seeded based on their season record when play stopped in March.
As mentioned earlier, normally only 16 teams make the playoffs but 24 teams were in this new tournament starting with an elimination round best-of-5 series between a bunch of teams (again, see above).
Because there wasn't a normal "bottom 15" for the lottery, the NHL did something out-of-the-ordinary this year.
They did a draft lotto before this tournament started. 7 total teams were not in this playoff and made up the bottom 7 teams (with Detroit having the best odds of #1 overall). The other 8 teams would come from the 8 teams knocked out of this Qualifier tournament that has been played this week.
To simulate this, the NHL had placeholder spots for Qualifier teams at lotto odds numbers 8-15 from above). Let's tune in and see how that went, shall we?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fh4o-HddIj8 As you can see,
one of those 8 teams ended up with the #1 overall pick. Much love to the Senators who had the absolutely stacked odds to get #1 overall and got 3 and 5.
So now the NHL has to have a SECOND lottery (scheduled for this Monday 8/10) of just the 8 teams that were knocked out of the Qualifiers to see who gets #1 overall and how the other 7 will fill in 9-15.
Why is that a problem? Well, the short answer is it might not be. But given we don't have a team yet it's something fun to talk about while we wait to start. First, let's look at who got knocked out.
- Oilers (the topic of this thread and I promise we'll get to them) [Western #5 Seed]. Regular season record of 37-25-9.
- Penguins [Eastern #5 Seed]. 40-23-6
- Predators [Western #6 Seed]. 35-26-8
- Rangers [Eastern #11 Seed]. 37-28-5
- Wild [Western #10 Seed]. 35-27-7
- Panthers [Eastern #10 Seed]. 35-26-8
- Jets [Western #9 Seed]. 37-28-6
- The loser of Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets [Eastern #8 vs #9]
Some of these teams have very good records, very good teams, and normally wouldn't have a shot at the #1 overall pick. See Edmonton and Pittsburgh as prime examples. We were most of the way through the season before the pause, and these would have been playoff teams. They would not have been in the bottom 15. But due to this odd tournament format they couldn't put it together for a series and now have lower draft placement than would normally be possible.
What's more, all 8 of these teams have an EVEN chance to get the #1 overall pick. The second lottery doesn't have stacked odds like the first. All 8 teams have a 12.5% chance of the #1 overall pick (which, as stated above, was already designated for a TBD team from this pool).
Here's a deeper dive into the 12.5% problem:
https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-draft-lottery-round-2-explained/
Ok, so who cares? What does it mean for the Kraken? The right question is to ask what it means for the Kraken's division. If you look back at the first section you can see that the only team in our division that got knocked out of the first round was Edmonton. LA is getting #2 overall and Anaheim is getting #6 overall. San Jose had already traded their pick to Ottawa, so they don't pick in the top 8 this year despite their record.
That means Edmonton has a 12.5% chance at the #1 overall pick. As a reminder, we play them 4-5 times a year and they matter more than a non-divisional opponent when it comes to determining playoff eligibility going forward.
Why am I picking on Edmonton? Because they already have the hockey equivalent of Mike Trout who is only 23 years old and some say is the most realistic player to someday challenge Gretzky as The Great One. His name is Connor McDavid.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/mcdavco01.html So the issue is that Edmonton already has a great team overall, the absolute best player in the world, and a shot at picking up the best player in this draft, who many say is this guy -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexis_Lafreni%C3%A8re The Kraken will play these guys a lot for the forseeable future, their team is young, good, and could get really stacked.
Discuss.
Edit: Since writing this Vegas did beat Colorado and got the #1 overall seed in the West. They will take on Chicago in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs starting next week.
Edit 2: Here's the information about Lottery 2, which will take place Monday 8/10 at 3pm PDT.
https://www.nhl.com/news/2020-nhl-draft-no-1-pick-to-be-awarded-in-second-phase/c-318343480
Edit 3: Crisis averted. The lottery just took place and the New York Rangers got the #1 overall pick.
submitted by
Edmonton Oilers 2017-2018 Going into this season, there were some high expectations. After a dominant end to the regular season in 16/17 during which the Oilers won 12 of their last 14 games, our subsequent playoff run died with Kesler lying on top of Talbot’s pads in game 5 against the Ducks. Eager to move past that… controversial call, to say the least, the Oilers were expected to make the postseason once again.
Off Season In terms of the UFA market, the Oilers did not make very many big moves during the offseason. We picked up defenseman Yohann Auvitu and forward Jussi Jokinen and signed them both to 1 year contracts. Auvitu would go on to play 33 games, recording 9 points, while Jokinen played 14 games and recorded 1 point before getting traded to LA for
shootout hero Mike Cammalleri. Eric Gryba was signed to an extension, as were Kris Russell and Iiro Pakarinen.
However, the Oilers made some very important RFA signings. Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira were extended, first of all. And then, on July 5th, Chiarelli signed McDavid to a max term $100M contract, with McDavid reportedly having been fine with taking less money so that the team’s cap situation would remain somewhat manageable. Soon after, in what is now seen in hindsight as a stroke of sheer brilliance, but was actually dumb luck and an awful GM, Draisaitl was signed to a max term $68M contract. At the time seen as slight overpay, we are beyond lucky to have this elite player signed for so little.
The Oilers saw a few departures from the roster as well. Fan favourite Hendricks was picked up by the Jets, Ference retired, playoff overtime hero Desharnais got picked up by the Rangers, Pitlick was signed by the Stars, we bought out Pouliot, and somewhat infamously, Griffin Reinhart was claimed by Vegas during the expansion draft. Oesterle also left for the Hawks, and Lander went to the KHL.
The most major departure in the roster over the off-season was of course the now infamous 1-for-1 Eberle trade, for which we acquired superstar PPG player Ryan Strome in return. Eberle would go on to score 59 points that season with the Islanders, while Strome picked up a measly 34 over the course of the season (for the record, he currently has 43 points this season… in 48 games). Some chalk this trade up to needing cap space for McDavid and Draisaitl, others say it was a result of a somewhat disappointing postseason performance, but this started a chain reaction of trades spanning multiple seasons, with each subsequent trade getting worse and more embarrassing.
Regular Season October
Hot off the heels of the aforementioned controversial ending to our 16/17 playoff run, with the same core cast of players now all locked up into long term contracts, and bolstered by a few minor offseason additions, the Oilers were ready to do it again. And sure enough, on October 4th, 2017, the Oilers kicked off the regular season with an absolutely dominant performance over our provincial rivals, where McDavid scored all 3 goals in this 3-0 shutout over the Flames, including
this absurd goal that was replayed in highlight reels for the rest of the season. Yup, we were ready for the playoffs.
Alas, all good things must come to an end, and so did our playoff hopes over the next 4 games after losing all 4 and getting outscored 19-8, including an embarrassing 6-1 loss to the Senators on home ice. The Oilers would go on to win 2 more games in the month of October, including a 2-1 OT win over Chicago off the back of yet another
highlight reel play by McDavid.
3-6-1
November
November was a mild improvement, where the Oilers played just about .500 hockey. It was a month with very high highs and very low lows, but that would become a theme throughout the season. It started off with consecutive OT road wins against the Islanders and the Devils, both featuring
gorgeous Dynamic Duo plays. We proceeded to flatten the suddenly dominant Vegas in an
8-2 hammering at home the following week, only to lose 6-3 to Dallas 4 days later and 8-3 to the Blues the game after that (which we promptly followed up with a dominant 6-2 win over the Red Wings, who had previously shut us out 4-0 earlier in the month. Whiplash much?). We capped off the month of November with an almost come-from-behind win against Toronto, where the Oilers went down 3-1 and 4-3 but tied the game both times, only to lose off an
own goal from Kris Russell in the dying minutes of the game 7-8-1
December
December started off with a bang, with almost a reverse of the game we played against Toronto. The Oilers went up 6-1 against the Flames, but our 2nd string goalie in Brossoit couldn’t stop a beach ball in the 3rd period, resulting in it being a 6-5 game with a minute to go. Then, in a twist of irony, T.J. Brodie knocked the puck into his own net defending against an odd man rush, securing a 7-5 win for the Oil. Remember how I mentioned high highs and low lows? The Oilers went on to win 6 of their next 9 games, including a
7-2 beatdown of the Blue Jackets at the tail end of a road trip, and finishing with a 4-game winning streak before the Christmas break. By then, we were 17-17-2 (.500 for basically the first time this season), finally on an upward trend, and although there was still plenty of work to do, we were only 4 points back from a playoff spot.
And then we came back from the Christmas break. Although the first 2 losses in a row were only 1-goal affairs, including an OT loss to Chicago, on New Years Eve the Oilers got shut out 5-0 at home by the Jets, and our season quickly turned into an utter disaster. High highs and low lows….
7-5-1
January
Including the New Years Eve game against the Jets, and over the next 5 games, the Oilers were outscored 22-5, including humiliating consecutive 5-0 shutouts on home ice. We would win one game during that 6-game stretch, a barnburner 2-1 SO win against Anaheim. The Oilers did follow that up with a 3-game winning streak, but too little, too late- the damage had been done. We had lost 7 of our last 8, and were so far back in the standings the playoffs were nothing more than a distant dream once again.
As we plummeted down the standings, there wasn’t too much excitement for the Oilers for the remainder of the season. In light of that, I will do my best to summarize the few highlights we did get over the next 3 months.
The Oilers beat Calgary 4-3 in a shootout to close out the month after a goal by McDavid was controversially called back due to a bullshit goalie interference call. This resulted in one of my all time favourite McDavid moments:
telling the refs to “check upstairs” after he scored the shootout winner 5-5-0
February
In quite likely my favourite game from the entire season, February saw
Connor McDavid single handedly destroyed the 36-14-3 Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2, and the Dynamic Duo continued to
impress in OT. February also saw a 7-5 loss to Florida which made history for being the
first ever NHL game in which each team had a player score on a penalty shot.
In light of yet another disappointing season, the Oilers were once again sellers at the trade deadline. We sold D Brandon Davidson to the Isles, traded PP specialist Letestu to the Preds (who was immediately flipped to the Preds) for Aberg (who would go on to play 16 games in an Oilers uniform), and sent the Big Rig Maroon to the Devils (for a pick who we flipped to Philly for Cooper Marody).
5-8-1
March/April
Continuing with our theme of high highs and low lows, the Oilers
trounced the Canes 7-3 in Carolina, and two days later
crushed Ottawa 6-2, only to lose 7-3 to Columbus the next week, in a game where we went up 3-0.
The Oilers closed out the season with a cheeky 3-2 SO win against the Canucks, in which the Sedins played their last game. Oilers players and fans alike, in a classy move, stayed late after the game ended and
gave the Sedins a proper farewell in a mirror image of the Canucks and their fans who did the same for Oilers legend Ryan Smyth several years prior.
9-8-2
Closing The Oilers finished the season with a disappointing 36-40-6 record and 78 points, good enough for 6th in the Pacific and 9th last in the league, 17 points out of a playoff spot.
Oddly enough, we went into the offseason slightly optimistic. Jesse Puljujarvi had had a very disappointing 20pts in 65 games, and Lucic fell off a figurative cliff and got 34 points, after getting 50 the season before. We weren’t too sure what happened. This was an off season, so to speak. Every team plays bad one year for no reason- this was ours. Puljujarvi would definitely crank up the heat next season and slot in to our top 6, Lucic would bounce back, and we were definitely going to make the postseason again. I mean, we were pretty bad this season. We couldn’t possibly be worse next season….
Personal note My apologies if I missed anything big- I tried to hit most of the major events that occurred, but already rereading what I have written I realize I likely could have spent more time discussing Lucic's not-so-slow descent and the disappointment of Puljujarvi throughout the season.
Mod Note Thanks to
u/butchthedoggy for doing this submission. Sorry I didn't have time to get the posts in but I will get them in there when I get off work.
Personnel - General Manager: Peter Chiarelli
- Head Coach: Todd McLellan
- Captain: Connor McDavid
- Assistant Captains: Adam Larsson, Milan Lucic, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Stats Player | GP | Goals | Assists | Points |
Connor McDavid | 82 | 41 | 67 | 108 |
Leon Draisaitl | 78 | 25 | 45 | 70 |
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 62 | 24 | 24 | 48 |
Ryan Strome | 82 | 13 | 21 | 34 |
Milan Lucic | 82 | 10 | 24 | 34 |
2017 Draft Player | Position | Round | Overall |
Kailer Yamamoto | C | 1 | 22 |
Stuart Skinner | G | 3 (from Calgary) | 78 |
Dmitri Samorukov | D | 3 | 84 |
Ostap Safin | RW | 4 | 115 |
Kirill Maksimov | RW | 5 | 146 |
Skyler Brind'Amour | C | 6 | 177 |
Philip Kemp | D | 7 | 208 |
Transaction Date | Team | Oilers Acquire | Oilers Move |
June 22nd, 2017 | New York Islanders | Ryan Strome | Jordan Eberle |
June 24, 2017 | Arizona Coyotes | 3rd round pick in 2017 (#78 Stuart Skinner) | 3rd round pick in 2017 (##82 Camerson Crotty), 5th round pick in 2017 (#126 Michael Karow) |
November 14th, 2017 | Los Angeles Kings | Michael Cammalleri | Jussi Jokinen |
December 19th, 2017 | Florida Panthers | Future Considerations | Gregory Chase |
January 4th, 2018 | Montreal Canadiens | Al Montoya | 2018 4th round pick (#102 Jasper Weatherby) |
January 31st, 2018 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Future Considerations | Edward Pasquale |
February 24th, 2018 | New York Islanders | 2019 3rd round pick (#85 Ilya Konovalov) | Brandon Davidson |
February 25th, 2018 | Nashville Predators | Pontus Aberg | Mark Letestu |
February 26th, 2018 | New Jersey Devils | J.D. Dudek, 2019 3rd round pick (#65 Alexander Campbell) | Patrick Maroon |
March 21st, 2018 | Philadelphia Flyers | Cooper Marody | 2019 3rd round pick (#65 Alexander Campbell) |
Standings (Pacific Division) Team | Wins | Losses | Overtime Losses | Points |
Las Vegas | 51 | 24 | 7 | 109 |
Anaheim | 44 | 25 | 13 | 101 |
San Jose | 45 | 27 | 10 | 100 |
Los Angeles | 45 | 29 | 8 | 98 |
Calgary | 37 | 35 | 10 | 84 |
Edmonton | 36 | 40 | 6 | 78 |
Vancouver | 31 | 40 | 11 | 73 |
Arizona | 29 | 41 | 12 | 70 |
Posts submitted by The NBA season hasn't started yet, but that doesn't mean that coaches should feel entirely comfortable in their offices quite yet. Circumstances change quickly, and coaching positions can change quickly along with them.
Through this (super long) post, I wanted to assess each coach's job security for this 2019-20 season. There's no simple or accurate metric for measuring this, so I'm going to give an estimated and subjective appraisal of their chances of getting fired, either in mid-season or at the end of the season.
I LOVE YOU, PLEASE DON'T LEAVE ME (listed alphabetically by team)
Golden State: Steve Kerr After 5 years on the job, Steve Kerr has a winning percentage of .785 in the regular season, and 3 NBA titles in the postseason. In fact, the team's 57-25 record last year was the
worst of his tenure so far. So yes, his job is safe. Kerr could coach the next 10 years there if he wanted. For Kerr, it's not a matter of job security; it's a matter of health. He's been able to endure his constant back pain in pursuit of titles, but will he have the same resolve if the team sags into "good but not great" status? TBD.
chance of firing: 0%.
chance of retirement: 10%.
L.A. Clippers: Doc Rivers A few years ago, Doc Rivers was almost the victim of his own success. His gaudy resume had allowed him to take charge of the L.A. Clippers front office, and he simply didn't do a great job in that role. However, he wisely took more of a backseat there, and embraced the job (head coach) that he's quite good at. The 48-34 record last year re-established his coaching cred, and the new superstars should energize him for a few more seasons at least.
chance of firing / retirement: 2% San Antonio: Gregg Popovich Along with Steve Kerr, Gregg Popovich is firmly in the "you can stay as long as you want" camp. And he nearly has. He's been at the helm for 23 years. Amazing, the last two seasons (47-35, 48-34) have amounted to Pop's worst percentages over the course of a full season. He's one of the greatest ever, and unlike some old veteran coaches, hasn't lost his fastball whatsoever. He's constantly adapted, evolved, and thrived. But as with Kerr, the question is whether Popovich is nearing the end of the road, for personal reasons. He's 70 now, and in control of Team USA. He may hand the baton off and focus on that job going forward. I suspect he'll give it a go in both roles until the Olympics at least, but it's no longer a guarantee.
chances of firing: 0%.
chances of retiring: 20%.
I STILL LOVE YOU, BUT WE MAY NEED COUPLES COUNSELING (listed alphabetically)
Boston: Brad Stevens A season or two ago, Brad Stevens was the golden boy coach in the NBA. After a slightly underwhelming 49-33 season, we're starting to see some grumbles about his offense (which isn't as free-flowing and ball-moving as his age may suggest.) The Celtics will replace Kyrie Irving with Kemba Walker, but expectations aren't much lower. If the team can't grab a top 4 seed, those grumbles may grow. And if the Boston-Stevens love affair ends, would he start to eye a move back to the NCAA? Probably not, but we can't promise the marriage lasts forever.
chances of firing: 2%,
chances of leaving: 5%.
Miami: Erik Spoelstra Although the Miami Heat have been mediocre lately (124-122 over the last three years), I'm still be inclined to group in Erik Spoelstra in with the "untouchables." After all, this is a 2-time champion coach with 500+ career wins prior to the age of 50 (48 years old right now.) Even if the Miami Heat underachieve and miss the playoffs again, I don't think Pat Riley would want to rock the boat on this culture. Still, Jimmy Butler is a handful, and potential addition Chris Paul isn't a bed of roses either. If Spoelstra can't get "buy in" from his new stars, then there may be more trouble in paradise than we expect. Again, it's a very small chance a divorce happens, but we can't give it a 0 either.
chance of firing: 4%.
JUST DON'T EMBARRASS ME IN PUBLIC (listed alphabetically)
Cleveland: John Beilein It's hard to under-estimate the leverage rookie coach John Beilein has with the organization right now. They lured him from Michigan with a 5 year contract, where he'll be "working for" a front office that features assistant GM Mike Gansey (Beilein's former player.) Simply put: they're going to hand him this team and allow him to build a program in his image. Despite that, it doesn't mean the transition will work like a charm (just ask Billy Donovan.) Beilein is 66 years old, and has never coached in the pros before. He may simply decide that he hates the NBA and walk away prematurely. Still, it's hard to imagine that happening
this early barring any unforeseen health issues.
chances of firing: 1%.
chances of leaving: 5%. Memphis: Taylor Jenkins Although they have wildly different resumes and backgrounds, Taylor Jenkins will be in a similar boat to John Beilein. He's inheriting a team that's in a rebuilding situation, and should afford him a lot of patience going forward. The Wharton-grad Jenkins projects as a smart, modern coach who should have long-term success. Still, we can't absolutely guarantee Memphis doesn't fire him after 1 season, because they have done that before.
chances of firing: 3% Milwaukee: Mike Budenholzer Based on pure coaching talent and resume, Coach Bud has nothing to worry about - particularly after a 60-22 record last season. The only reason that I'm even putting him in this category at all is the potential for off-the-court issues. He had been arrested before on a suspicion of DUI back in 2014, although he was later found not guilty. If something worse happens in that ilk, then he may be in trouble. But barring that, he's obviously safe.
chances of firing: 2%.
Minnesota: Ryan Saunders While interim coach Ryan Saunders (Flip's son) had been a popular pick in the locker room, he still represents a sizable risk by this new front office. After all, he's only 33 years old and hasn't been a head coach at any level prior to that short stint last season. He may be a home run; he may be a strike out. Of course, he'd have to be a wild strike out (with a bat thrown into the stands) for it to amount to a firing in year one.
chances of firing: 5% Orlando: Steve Clifford Veteran Steve Clifford did a tremendous job in his first year in Orlando, helping the team improve from 25-57 to 42-40 and a playoff trip. There's a chance the Magic may stagnate in R1 unless one of their young players (Jon Isaac, Mo Bamba, Markelle Fultz) takes a "leap," but they should have patience with Clifford for at least another year or two. Barring health issues, his job is safe.
chances of firing: 2%.
Phoenix: Monty Williams One of the reasons we can't claim rookie coaches are entirely safe is because teams like Phoenix have fired them in the past -- including Igor Kokoskov last season. However, it'd be very difficult for any owner (even Robert Sarver) to justify doing it two times in a row. In fact, Monty Williams secured a 5-year deal to help prevent that nonsense.
chances of firing: 2%.
Sacramento: Luke Walton Despite mixed results in L.A., Luke Walton was a hot commodity with the Sacramento Kings franchise, who gave him a nice 4-year contract. Of course, that happened before the sexual misconduct allegations that surfaced since. While that appears to have quieted down, any
new rumor or accusation may turn up the heat on Walton. Barring that, the team should stand by their man.
chances of firing: 5%.
Toronto: Nick Nurse Nick Nurse is about as close to "untouchable" as you can get for a coach with 1 year of experience. But hey, that was a heck of a year. Nurse won the title, and outfoxed several great coaches along the way. The Raptors could probably sink down as low as 30 wins (unlikely) and still keep Nurse for the long haul.
chances of firing: 1%.
Utah: Quin Snyder While Quin Snyder hasn't had a huge amount of playoff success yet himself, he's also quickly established himself as one of the better NBA coaches. Over the last three years, the Jazz have played lockdown defense and averaged 49.7 wins. This offseason has raised expectations, but Snyder should be safe for another season or two even if they slightly underachieve. The bigger issue would be if Snyder gets in trouble off the court; he had a wilder history in college prior to straightening out in the pros.
chances of firing: 4%.
YOU'RE SAFE (FOR NOW) (again, alphabetically)
Atlanta: Lloyd Pierce In theory, Lloyd Pierce should be in great shape here in Atlanta. The young team had a solid 29-53 season in his first year, and their young core projects well for the future. That said, expectations will rise over time. Pierce was partly hired for his defensive reputation, but the team only ranked 27th last season. With Trae Young (who graded dead last in ESPN RPM on defense), that may be hard to change. Hopefully rookies De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish will solve that issue, but if not, Pierce may start feeling some heat in 2020. When he was hired, the team only gave him a 3 year contract, which indicates that he didn't have much leverage coming in.
chances of firing: 7.5% Charlotte: James Borrego Like Lloyd Pierce, James Borrego will be entering Year 2 in a rebuilding situation that should lend itself to patience. On the other hand, logic tends to go out the window when it comes to the Charlotte Hornets. Borrego will have to deal with a weak roster, and a shaky front office that just gave $19M a season to Terry Rozier. I expect Borrego will survive for a while, but we can't rule out a house cleaning.
chances of firing: 10%.
Brooklyn: Kenny Atkinson Kenny Atkinson has done a great job bringing the Nets out of a deep black hole rebuild, but now the expectations will vault up with the arrival of Kyrie Irving (and soon Kevin Durant.) Presumably, those stars wouldn't have signed up in the first place if they didn't like Atkinson. That said, their opinions can change at the drop of a hat. A disappointment in 2019-20? Okay fine.
Another in 2020-21? Then Atkinson will start feeling that seat warm.
chances of firing: 4% Dallas: Rick Carlisle As one of the most respected coaches (and a title winner to boot), Rick Carlisle should have job security for life. Still, the NBA will always be a stars league, and Carlisle's star isn't Dirk Nowitzki anymore. It's going to be Luka Doncic (and Kristaps Porzingis' team), and Carlisle will need to appease them to some degree. Missing the playoffs this year may be fine, but whiffing again in 2020-21 would be problematic; it would be the 5th season in a row without a playoff berth.
chances of firing/retiring: 5% Denver: Mike Malone After a premature exit in Sacramento, Mike Malone has rebuilt his stock by lifting Denver to contender status. He's improved every year, from 30-52 to 33-49 to 40-42 to 46-36 to the breakout 54-28 record last season. Of course, that also comes with rising expectations. Like the others in this section, Malone could survive one regression year, but two disappointing years in a row would be a problem.
chances of firing: 5%.
Detroit: Dwane Casey Of all our coaches, Dwane Casey knows that one should never get too comfortable. After all, he was fired after a 59-win season (and a Coach of the Year trophy) in Toronto. After that, he still had enough leverage to earn a 5-year deal in Detroit, which should buy him quite a bit of time. Still, a 41-41 start was "meh." To make matters worse, Nick Nurse and the Raptors won the title without him (albeit with Kawhi Leonard.) Given Casey's big contract, he should be safe in Year 2 and Year 3, but there's hardly a guarantee he'll survive all 5 years of the deal.
chances of firing: 5%.
10 HOTTEST SEATS (in order)
(10) Portland: Terry Stotts Remember, this isn't a ranking of the best and worst coaches but merely their situations. In fact, everyone would agree that Terry Stotts is a very good basketball coach. In fact, if you asked the other NBA coaches to rank their peers, I suspect Stotts may even crack the top 5. That skill has manifested on the court as well. His Blazers have made the playoffs for 6 seasons in a row, and had a mini-breakout with a Conference Finals trip this year.
Still,
making the playoffs doesn't lock in job security in the NBA; winning a title does. And until that happens, the franchise will always wonder in the back of their minds on whether or not they should pull a "Masai Ujiri" and squeeze Stotts out for a younger assistant on his staff like Nate Tibbetts, a rising star in the ranks.
After tasting the WCF last year, can Stotts afford to take a step back? Probably. Losing in R2 seems about right for this team as presently constructed. But what if they lose in R1? Then it becomes more of a debate. I'd still recommend keeping Stotts and tweaking the roster instead (ya'll got any more of them stretch PFs?) but I'm not in charge of the team and I'm not ruling any shake-ups out.
chances of firing: 15% (9) Indiana: Nate McMillan As with Terry Stotts, it may feel strange to see Nate McMillan on this list. At first glance, neither should be on the hot seat at all. In McMillan's three years on the job, he's guided the team to winning records and playoff trips in each season. The Pacers just finished 48-34 despite Victor Oladipo's injury, and may be better than that this season with new additions like Malcolm Brogdon.
Still, we have to go deeper than the first glance here. Indiana thrives on the basis of their defense (ranked 3rd last season), which is heavily influenced by assistant Dan Burke and DPOY candidate Myles Turner. Offensively, the team tends to look a little scattered and uncreative, which has Pacers fans quietly murmuring about McMillan. They added some new scorers in Brogdon and T.J. Warren, but both are players coming off career years from 3. If they regress at all -- and this
team regresses at all -- then McMillan may be in more trouble than we realize.
Am I expected that? Not really. If I had to bet, I would bank on the Pacers winning 45-50 games and McMillan lasting at least another season. But if we're looking for potential hot seat situations, we can't ignore the potential downside here. If they underachieve, McMillan may be the fall guy.
chances of firing: 20% (8) N.Y. Knicks: David Fizdale We can't judge David Fizdale too harshly based on his 17-65 record in year one. After all, tanking and landing a top 3 pick was all part of the plan. But what's the plan going forward? After striking out with the superstars in free agency, the Knicks signed a bunch of B+ and C+ players to big money. With it, they've attempted to re-set expectations. Instead of landing superstars in 2019, they're going to land them in 2021! Hopefully?
In the meantime, David Fizdale should be able to survive until then. His team is still young, and features first and second year players like R.J. Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox, and Dennis Smith. Practically speaking, the veterans like Julius Randle and Bobby Portis are meant to supplement that rebuilding movement. Fizdale should be allowed to develop this group, and be afforded some growing pains in 2019-20 and again in 2020-21.
However, there are a few factors working against him. The front office may fancy themselves a playoff contender out East, which may go sour by the end of the year. Moreover, that front office isn't exactly on solid ground themselves after getting pounded by the press this summer. Dolan may want a complete fresh start after this year. More than that, there's a non-zero chance James Dolan leaves town himself, and some super-billionaire like Jeff Bezos uses his change jar to buy the team and mold it into his image. At the end of the day, there's more uncertainty with this situation than a second-year coach would like to see.
chances of firing: 20% (7) Chicago: Jim Boylen As a well-respected defensive coordinator, Jim Boylen's name has always been bandied about for head coaching jobs in the past. He finally got his opportunity last season after taking over for apple pie Fred Hoiberg in mid-season.
At first, it did
not go well. Jim Boylen had about as rocky of a start as you can imagine, earning negative reports in the press about his drill sergeant attitude clashing with the locker room. Still, he turned that perception around and had a decent finish to the year and earned some "buy in" from the players. Better yet, his Chicago Bulls may be a darkhorse contender for the # 8 seed. They have offensive stars in Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen already, so an improved defense may vault them closer to .500. Even if that doesn't happen (yet), Boylen should feel safe knowing he has the backing of the front office.
Of course, that also ties Boylen's fate to that front office. Ownership has tended to leave Gar Forman and John Paxson alone, but it's not a lifetime appointment. If this team doesn't improve enough (and wins say, 25 or 30 games), then there may be a total housecleaning here. I'm a little more optimistic on the Bulls' chances of winning 35-40 games than others, but we can't rule a potential disaster out.
chances of firing: 25% (6) Philadelphia: Brett Brown After a long dark winter, Brett Brown and the Philadelphia 76ers have emerged from the "Process" intact. In fact, Brown has won more games in each of the last two seasons (52 and 50) then he did over his first three seasons
combined (47). But with that comes raised expectations, which may be higher than ever. With Kawhi Leonard out of the Conference and the sheen off the Boston Celtics, the Sixers are the co-favorites with Milwaukee to make the Finals. Losing in the Conference Finals would be acceptable, but a R1 or R2 loss may be stinging.
Would that disappointment be enough to cost Brown his job? It's debatable. His contract extension runs through 2021-22, but that's never stopped a coach from being fired before. Fans may grow frustrated if Ben Simmons still can't shoot, or if Joel Embiid can't stay healthy, or if Philly's defense doesn't look as dominant as it should be on paper (despite Simmons, Embiid, and Jimmy Butler, they only ranked # 15 last season.) It's very possible that Brown becomes the scapegoat here.
Of course, we're talking "worst case scenarios" here. Chances are: the Sixers should be quite good and have a very good chance to make the ECF or the Finals. So while we can't rule out a firing, we wouldn't bet on it either.
chances of firing: 30% (5) New Orleans: Alvin Gentry After coming over from Golden State, the exceptions for Alvin Gentry in New Orleans were sky-high. Suffice it to say, it's been an underwhelming return so far. Despite the (occasional) presence of Anthony Davis, his Pelicans have won less than 35 games in three of his four seasons on the job.
Oddly, Davis' trade demands may have
helped Gentry survive another year. With the blockbuster deal, expectations get re-set and the window extends again. On paper, Gentry and assistant Chris Finch's run-and-gun style should suit this new roster well. Gentry is also someone who's earned high praise from his players and from the media in the past. If new execs David Griffin and Trajan Langdon didn't believe in him, they had the opportunity to make that change this past summer.
But alas, that doesn't mean they won't have that same opportunity again next summer. Gentry's contract will be running out, and the team may decide to go with someone younger than him (he's now age 64.) To earn a longer leash, Gentry doesn't need to make the playoffs, but he has to show reasons for optimism. The Pelicans need to find a clear role for Zion Williamson, and earn some improvement from the cast-off Lakers. There's a lot of talent on the roster, but if the team stalls or looks like a muddled mess, Griffin may likely clean up the picture and chose his own head coach the next time around.
chances of firing: 35% (4) Houston: Mike D'Antoni Veteran Mike D'Antoni may start spitting out Rodney Dangerfield routines, because the poor guy doesn't get much respect. Despite a great run here in Houston (records of 55-27, 65-17, 53-29), he's still struggling to earn a contract extension from the franchise.
And while owner Tilman Fertitta gets the blame for that, we can't rule out Daryl Morey's influence either. Morey has stated in the past that he thinks coaches' messages tend to run stale after a few years, and that philosophy has born out in their decision making. Jeff Van Gundy lasted 4 years. After him, Rick Adelman lasted 4 years. After him, Kevin McHale lasted 4 years (+10 games). This season, Mike D'Antoni will be entering the dreaded 4th year himself. The Houston Rockets' job essentially has strict presidential term limits, and he's verging on lame duck status.
To up the degree of difficulty even further, the team added Russell Westbrook to the equation. That's not to say it's the wrong decision by any means or that it won't work out (personally I'd still peg them for a top 3 seed), but we have to admit there's a sizable
chance that it won't work out. The chemistry for Harden + Westbrook is going to be harder to calculate now that they've both had considerable success (and MVP seasons). And if something doesn't click, it will certainly be easier to blame D'Antoni than the two stars, whose massive contracts run for another few seasons.
chances of firing/retiring: 40% (3) L.A. Lakers: Frank Vogel It's rare to see a first-year coach listed this high, but this is rare circumstances indeed. Frank Vogel will be joining the Lakers on a 3-year contract, which is quite light for a veteran like him. That fact showcases his limited leverage and his reduced reputation. The Lakers didn't high the coach who guided the Indiana Pacers to the ECF; they hired the coach who led Orlando to 29-53 and 25-57 records. In some ways, Vogel is lucky to have landed any job at all.
But there's no mistaking the fact that
this particular job will come with some challenges. Primary among them: the threat of assistant Jason Kidd breathing down his neck. According to some, Kidd was the first choice of the front office, and the conspiracy theory that they simply didn't want to hire him outright (due to domestic violence charges in the past) checks out logically for me. Vogel can't be too pleased to turn on the Summer League and watch his new star LeBron James sitting next to Kidd in Vegas either.
Will LeBron James, Rich Paul, and Jason Kidd conspire to stab Vogel like Caesar? The odds are high. But the question is a matter of "when?" James didn't love David Blatt, but allowed him 1.5 on the job before he got the boot. The Lakers may end up giving Vogel a full season and change to make his impact on the defensive end before considering a full-time change in midseason in 2020-21.
And hey, we can't rule out the "what if it works?" theory either. This team has LeBron James and Anthony Davis, for fuck's sake. They have a legitimate chance to be a great team, and even an NBA champion. If
that happens, Vogel won't be going anywhere (at least, not for another year or two.)
chances of firing: 45% (2) Washington: Scottie Brooks The Scottie Brooks era in Washington has been a disappointment, and it won't get much prettier from here. After the John Wall injury, the Wizards will be entering 2019-20 with one legitimate star in Bradley Beal and a wonky supporting cast. They're a motley crew of decent prospects who may be 2 years away (Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant) and veterans who may be 2 years removed from quality play (Isaiah Thomas, Ish Smith, C.J. Miles.) Realistically speaking, Bradley Beal will have to put in a Herculean effort for this group to win 35 games.
If there's any reason to think the axe will
not come for Scottie Brooks' head, it's that this Washington Wizards owner Ted Leonsis isn't the
"off with his head!" type. He's been patience with the Washington Capitals hockey team, as well as this Wizards unit. Former GM Ernie Grunfeld lasted for years past his expiration date. And in turn, Brooks may be allowed to play out another year of his (pricy) contract. Brooks also has a reputation as a good player development coach, which bodes well for his prospects during a possible rebuild to come.
All that said, Brooks shouldn't be investing in D.C. real estate. The clock is ticking. I would fully expect new acting GM Tommy Sheppard to cut Brooks loose and choose his own coach at some point, but we can't be 100% confident it will happen after
this season or after the next.
chances of firing: 50% (1) Oklahoma City: Billy Donovan Given his new status as a /NBA punching bag, it's hard to under-sell just how much leverage Billy Donovan had when he first came to Oklahoma City. We're talking about a well-paid college coach who had won two separate NCAA titles at Florida, and had resisted the NBA calls for years. He arrived in OKC with a 5-year deal in tow, as well as a reputation as one of the best coaches in basketball.
As we now enter Year 5 of that contract, Donovan's reputation has been tarnished considerably. He's been blasted for perceived underachievement, particularly in the postseason. With Kevin Durant, the team blew a 3-1 lead to Golden State, and hasn't won a playoff series since (losing in R1 three times in a row.) In fact, they've gone 4-15 in playoff games since then. Donovan's managed to avoid getting the boot because of his reputation and big contract, but those excuses won't hold off the executioner much longer.
Personally, I'm a little bit of a "Donovan Defender." I don't think he's done as bad of a job as advertised. After all, his worst regular season record has been 47-35. He's kept the team afloat without Kevin Durant. And sure, he probably should have reined in Russell Westbrook, but it's not easy to harness an MVP. The fact that Donovan won 48 games with a guard who jacked up 20 shots a game (at 50.1% true shooting) is oddly impressive in a way. And heck, let's even defend blowing the 3-1 lead. It's not like OKC woke up one morning with a 3-1 lead under their Christmas tree; Donovan used some wily tricks and unconventional lineups to help earn those 3 wins in the first place.
But again, these rankings aren't about my perception of the coaches, but rather my perception of their situations and stocks. In theory, this OKC roster isn't half bad and could flirt with .500 if they wanted to pursue the playoffs. And in theory, if they blow it up, then a college coach like Donovan may be well suited for that rebuild. But in
reality, I just don't see an extension here. The marriage has soured, resentment has built up, and a divorce may be best for both parties involved.
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